The tariffs are a sledgehammer used in an attempt to repair the current highly imperfect but functioning international free market machine. The necessity to rein in the dumping of highly subsidised EV's, solar panels and other Chinese exports aimed at damaging other producers of hi-tech products was urgent and necessary but the effective banning of almost any kind of good from anywhere in the world is, in my view, suicidal for the US economy as well as most others, with very few economists disagreeing. The application of such wide-ranging and extreme measures could have been guaranteed to bring unintended consequences and one has already made itself felt. Trump purposely excluded Russia from the new tariff regime but the resultant chaos in the markets and the fears of a world wide recession has resulted in oil prices plummeting which could easily prove fatal to the Russian economy as more than one third of its revenue is based on the sale of oil. Some relief might have been gained if it could reduce output until prices increase but unlike most oil producers, Russian oil is in areas of permafrost so the pumps cannot be shut down temporarily or they freeze up and cannot be re-started and so a new well must be built costing billions of dollars and requiring western technology and experts to build it.
"Research firm Rystad Energy estimated the average breakeven price for profitability in the U.S. oil sector is $62 per barrel." It is true that low oil prices hurt Iran and Russia, but they are also a prelude to a recession because the economy is slowing down. In my opinion, the tariffs are a sign that Trump doesn’t know what he’s doing and that people behind the scenes are the ones steering his presidency. From my perspective, as I said even before the elections—that he would strive to maintain American hegemony—this is a war against China, with the EU serving as a doormat... POSITIVE: By raising tariffs, he will try to bring production back to the U.S. If he also bans or reduces immigration, and generations with lower birth rates are coming, it means there will be more jobs for fewer workers—similar to what happened in Croatia after joining the EU, where wages started rising. Foreign companies can’t compete with American ones due to high tariffs, and since American companies won’t face competition, it will be enough for them to be just slightly cheaper than imported goods. If, on top of that, he offers some tax breaks to those companies, then it will definitely be profitable for them to return. NEGATIVE: The very calculation of tariffs is, to put it mildly, silly—they imposed tariffs on countries with a trade surplus with the U.S. by dividing that surplus by two. Croatia is part of the EU, so common EU tariffs apply (I believe about 10%), and he called them "reciprocal" because those countries supposedly have higher tariffs on U.S. goods—which is a lie. For example, Switzerland has around 1.5% tariffs on U.S. goods, but since they have a surplus with the U.S., he slapped them with high tariffs, even though the U.S. had higher tariffs on Swiss goods… This applies to many countries. The key lies in the fact that the dollar is the world’s reserve currency, which makes it strong by default because everyone trades in it (increases dollar demand), and the stronger the dollar, the harder it is to export goods to markets with lower purchasing power because the goods become expensive for local buyers. On the other hand, countries with weaker currencies find it easier to export to the U.S. America has a trade deficit in goods, but, for example, with the EU, it has a surplus in services and finance, largely due to the dollar being the reserve currency. So, the U.S. imports more goods than it exports, which benefits American consumers, but in services, it earns much more—finance (banks, insurance companies, funds...), technology (IT companies...), media (films, music...). Every time you use a Visa card, they profit from it. Just think how much tech giants like Google, Facebook, etc., owe in taxes in the EU, and yet they’re given a free pass. Goods will inevitably become more expensive for everybody. The attack on China—which is involved in the production of many industrial goods—means many products can’t easily be replaced. This increase in prices will lower the standard of living and could even lead to shortages of certain goods. For example, they’ve imposed tariffs on countries from which they import coffee—but where are the coffee plantations in the U.S.? That means coffee prices will rise, and this applies to many sectors because the U.S. can’t produce everything itself. Even if it could, it would take years to start up production facilities and reach a certain level of quality. Other countries are being punished simply because they have industries that greedy billionaires moved offshore to produce cheaply—and now these countries are being blamed, which makes no sense. Who’s stopping US from producing high-quality goods that can compete in the global market? EU goods aren’t cheap, but they’re high quality. Those American goods that are in demand and of good quality are definitely exported and people buy them. So purchasing depends on demand, not—as Trump says—because others have imposed high tariffs. Low tariffs primarily benefited American consumers who, with a strong dollar, were able to buy a wide range of goods at low prices In the end, shifting such a large amount of industry takes time, while a presidential term lasts four years—and politics could flip 180 degrees again. So how profitable is that really... And once again, he’s stepping on the toes of the U.S.'s biggest allies—the EU, Japan, South Korea, Australia...
I have to say Donald Trump has nerves of total steel. When I think of the tiny little things that cause me sleepless nights and he has the whole weight of the world on his shoulders. I have to say I greatly admire this. I see the some of the Asian markets are rallying this morning as they open. A good sign. I don't think the President intends to keep tariffs forever and ever. It is to enable real negotiations for fairer trade deals. But he certainly is Mr Cool Guy. Nerves of total steel. Admirable. I don't envy him. I would be a shaking jelly fish. https://apnews.com/article/stocks-markets-tariffs-china-trump-b686ef0259c2f4894f9fcd1f3649a956
Right or wrong he is amazing. I don't know how he has survived all the attempts to take him down , legal and attempts on his life. He is incredible.
He is under protection i believe. A LOT of prayer has gone up for him. We must keep praying! Especially for wisdom!!! And courage to do the right thing.
When you dig into the history of tariff discussion in the US, pretty much most politicians in the spotlight since the 90's have discussed the need to do something about it because it truly was not fair policies for the US and the US buy more foreign goods than most nations combined. The difference is, Trump actually is doing something about it and now they all cry foul. Why? Because they don't ever want to actually fix problems, just get reelected and they are all bought and paid for and he isn't. There are plenty of things I am not a fan of about him and sometimes even wonder if he is bought and paid for as well as controlled opposition but I can't criticize someone trying to fix the broken problems within the US especially around our deficit and rising annual debt. I am a financial advisor for a living with degrees in Economics and most don't realize what he is truly trying to do. The US has $9 trillion in debt that needs to be refinanced in 2026. We also have run a $2 trillion annual deficit for some time and growing taking the national debt up. What do tarriffs, DOGE and the declining markets do? Well DOGE has already uncovered a Trillion plus in waste. Tariffs or new negations could generate another Trillion plus. That wipes out the deficit and drives inflation down below 1%. The market pull back right now leads to money flooding into bonds making bond prices go up while yields come down. You actually want a small recession in the US or close to it because then the Fed has no choice but to drop rates to stimulate the economy since they won't drop them now when they should. You drop the rates by 1% or greater for a refinance of the debt next year and you save $10 billion in interest payments right there. Employment is already going up, inflation is dropping, price of oil just went below $60. The US is on the way to lower taxes, one time special dividends, growing workforce and in a way more of a mercantilism society. All this works, you have the strongest economy this country has ever seen. The TV pundits are doing their jobs to try an make this look like all gloom and doom but they are playing checkers while the businessman president is playing chess. It will be a bumpy ride but if this works out, look out. The dems may not win an election for 20 years after this prosperity that could come. Not to mention a strong US leads to a strong global economy as well.
Thank you for putting this into language I can understand. I look forward to seeing this whole mess work out the way you see it.
What he is doing won't work. The US tourist industry is emploding. Wait for Q2 numbers in a few months. The cost for US employees to product the widgets made elsewhere would increase the retails by 3 to 5 times. Many Americans can barely afford things today. No business to going to invest in chaotic conditions when things could change in one day let alone a year. There were 1000s of unfilled automotive positions in the US before tariffs. Do you think most countries are going to happily buy American cars and trucks after this? I'm Canadian and Conservative. American businesses were allowed this unfair situation 35 years ago. That is when tariff should have started. I'm no economist, but i believe time will prove out this being a collosal mistake. Let's see what prices look like at the 4200 Walmarts in USA that sell 60% Chinese goods if these tariffs keep going. Prices have to go up LONG before any jobs would be created to end up supplying the same items to Americans and way higher retails. We're way past the West making all the stuff people buy everyday. Those jobs, which sound so great will have to paybso well that everyone can now afford American made goods. Good luck. It won't be small or short ressession if tariffs continue that is certain. We'll see how many sock factory (and 1000s of other items) jobs Trump creates where the workers can afford a house and a car and all the American made widgets.
I hope it works out for him. I get the point of trying to create employment but the market is now all about cheaper goods with most components manufactured in low cost economies. It's seems to be a nuclear option. A time for prayer for wisdom surely.
The world can't continue the way it is if we want the masses to return to Cbrist. So I see these things through the lens of "What is God maybe going to do through this?" Is it such a bad thing spiritually if this tariff thing doesn't go well from a worldly point of view? I don't know. But God knows.
Everyday when I wake up I day “Now what?” My health goes south of the world teeters. I just put it in God’s hands. Things don’t turn out like we think they will anyway.
This reminds me of Scripture, from St Paul where he says that, 'The spiritual man judges all things spiritually'. 1 Corinthians 2:15 But he that is spiritual judgeth all things, yet he himself is judged by no man. I often feel like a stranger in a strange land a pilgrim passing through simply because I am a Christian in a World that is more and more pagan. I have to admit I know pretty well nothing about economics and much else besides. But like Our Lady my eyes are fixed on the Hand of the Lord my God. Goodness knows what will happen really. However my general understanding from Catholic Prophecy is that we entering the most huge storm. Balancing that we will enter a whole new far, far,far better World when it is all over. So I prayerfully hang unto that. My heart however goes out to those who have no real Faith to sustain them in these times. I think for instance of the billions and billions of poor, poor souls in places like China and Europe without Faith as the storm blows round them. They have placed their entire Faith in Governments and material prosperity. But this precarious ship is sinking. Now to whom or what will they turn now? What can we do? I have a huge devotion to Padre Pio and love his words, 'Pray , hope and don't worry' , Well I do my best but it is not easy. I am really looking forward to putting down my first little crop of salads and potatoes. It's maybe not a lot but it is something practical. I am so glad I decided to follow God's urging to come to this remote little place in Spain at this time. It feels a little bit like Noah's Ark the way things are going. I see the Markets are nose diving again this morning. The Chinese have a curse, 'May you live in interesting times'. Well we are living in very,very,very interesting times. Whatever next?
I love the Rembrandt painting of thus scene. It shows most of the dusciples in panic - at the other end of boat trying to save themselves. But a few remain very close to Jesus and even though the storm is raging , they are at peace. Its a great visual and the right message. I tried to post by i always have problems posting picture here. Peace. Stay near Jesus.
The other thought I had on all this last night was what if God is using Trump to actually have this not work and crash global economies. Would make a lot of sense to destroy man's god ie mammon ie money prior to God bringing to the world his great act of mercy via the warning. Would a warning have as great of an impact to sinners if sinners still were comfortable in worshiping stuff, money, power and prominence. A global depression would turn so many to God then you get His warning.
If it works out. It is quite the gamble and time is short. If there is not progress on this my summer of 2026, the midterms will change the power in Congress yet again and then Trump will be powerless and if the dems take both houses, you can be certain they will impeach him and Vance and try to take over the Presidency.
